THE ACCURACY OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DISCRIMINANT MODELS IN THE ITALIAN CONTEXT

This research is driven by the conclusions of Bellovary, Giacomino and Akers (2007), who stated at that time that future research, rather than aiming to develop new bankruptcy prediction models (to add to the considerable body) should focus more on the use of existing models. In this regard, we aimed to verify the accuracy of three bankruptcy prediction models, all based on multivariate discriminant analysis, in predicting the fate of firms operating in a different business context and all located in EmiliaRomagna region of Italy. The models tested were: Altman's Z'-score ( 1993) , Alberici's Z-score ( 1975) , and Bottani, Cipriani and Serao's discriminant function (2004). In particular, we conducted a two-phase analysis, the first to determine the capacity of the three models to predict the fate of firms known to have gone bankrupt between 2012 and 2014, and the second to distinguish between bankrupt and buoyant firms in a mixed sample from the same period. The analysis was performed according to ex-post reasoning, and the investigated models were tested on retrospective data pertaining to two distinct samples of firms of known status. Specifically, the first sample comprised firms that already met the condition the models were designed to detect, i.e., bankruptcy, and the second comprised equal numbers of operational and failed firms. The models were applied to the annual financial statements pertaining to the last five years of activity of bankrupt firms, and the most recent five years of activity of the solvent firms. The predictive efficacy of each model was determined by comparing the results furnished by each model with the real world status of the investigated firms. The results obtained were: 1) Altman's model, applied with a single cut-off, is well able to detect signs of failure and to discriminate between failing and flourishing firm, even if taken out of its original context and applied to in a heterogeneous sample of firms; 2) Altman's model appears to meet the demand for generalizability, and is therefore suitable for large-scale investigations

Does The Development Context Affect Bankruptcy Prediction Models’ General Accuracy? A Comparative Analysis Of Four Multivariate Discriminant Models In The Italian Context

This research starts from the work by Madonna and Cestari (2015) that aimed at assessing the usability of three bankruptcy prediction models applied in contexts other than the ones of their elaboration, in order to evaluate their generalizability and the possibility to apply them in wide-scale investigations. We took the cue from that study to assess the usability of four bankruptcy prediction models, when applied to a sample with characteristics other than the ones related to their elaboration. We aimed at verifying the predictive accuracy and the discriminant capacity of the four models, basing on the assumption that the performances displayed by bankruptcy prediction models are usually better when they are applied in contexts similar to the one of their elaboration. Given this premise, we hypothesized that Italian models should perform better than the American one. In order to verify this hypothesis, we tested the four multivariate discriminant models twice: the predictive accuracy was tested applying the models on a sample of firms gone bankrupt within 2012 and 2014; the discriminant capacity on a sample equally composed by bankrupt and operating firms. Both samples were composed by firms located in Italy and operating in recent years. Hence the sample provided and the context of application were different from the ones of the models‘ elaboration. The results show that even if the Italian models were elaborated basing on contexts more similar to the one of the present application, the best performance is reached by the American Altman’s Z‘-Score model

Collaborate for what: a structural topic model analysis on CDP data

[EN] The aim of this paper is to understand why firms engage with their suppliers to collaborate for sustainability. To this purpose, we use the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Supply Chain dataset and apply the Structural Topic Model to 1) identify the topics discussed in an open-ended question related to climate-related supplier engagement and 2) estimate the differences in the discussion of such topics between CDP members and non-members, respectively focal firms and first-tier suppliers. The analysis highlights that the two most prevalent reasons firms engage with their suppliers relate to several aspects of the management of the supply chain, and the services and goods mobility efficiency. It is further noted how first-tier suppliers do not dispose of established capabilities and, therefore, are still in the course of improving their processes. On the contrary, focal firms have more structured capabilities so to manage supplier engagement for information collection. This study demonstrates how big data and machine learning methods can be applied to analyse unstructured textual data from traditional surveys.Salvatore, C.; Madonna, A.; Bianchi, A.; Boffelli, A.; Kalchschmidt, M. (2022). Collaborate for what: a structural topic model analysis on CDP data. En 4th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2022). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 139-146. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2022.2022.1507413914

Stimulation of S1PR5 with A-971432, a selective agonist, preserves blood-brain barrier integrity and exerts therapeutic effect in an animal model of Huntington's disease

Huntington's disease (HD) is themost common neurodegenerative disorder for which no effective cure is yet available. Although several agents have been identified to provide benefits so far, the number of therapeutic options remains limited with only symptomatic treatment available. Over the past few years, we have demonstrated that sphingolipid-based approachesmay open the door to newandmore targeted treatments for the disease. In this study, we investigated the therapeutic potential of stimulating sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptor 5 by the new selective agonist A-971432 (provided by AbbVie) in R6/2mice, a widely used HD animalmodel. Chronic administration of low-dose (0.1mg/kg) A-971432 slowed down the progression of the disease and significantly prolonged lifespan in symptomatic R6/2mice. Such beneficial effects were associated with activation of pro-survival pathways (BDNF, AKT and ERK) and with reduction of mutant huntingtin aggregation. A-971432 also protected blood-brain barrier (BBB) homeostasis in the same mice. Interestingly, when administered early in the disease, before any overt symptoms, A-971432 completely protected HDmice fromthe classic progressivemotor deficit and preserved BBB integrity. Beside representing a promising strategy to take into consideration for the development of alternative therapeutic options for HD, selective stimulation of S1P receptor 5may be also seen as an effective approach to target brain vasculature defects in the disease

Reduced brain UCP2 expression mediated by microRNA-503 contributes to increased stroke susceptibility in the high-salt fed stroke-prone spontaneously hypertensive rat

UCP2 maps nearby the lod score peak of STR1-stroke QTL in the SHRSP rat strain. We explored the potential contribution of UCP2 to the high-salt diet (JD)-dependent increased stroke susceptibility of SHRSP. Male SHRSP, SHRSR, two reciprocal SHRSR/SHRSP-STR1/QTL stroke congenic lines received JD for 4 weeks to detect brain UCP2 gene/protein modulation as compared with regular diet (RD). Brains were also analyzed for NF-κB protein expression, oxidative stress level and UCP2-targeted microRNAs expression level. Next, based on knowledge that fenofibrate and Brassica Oleracea (BO) stimulate UCP2 expression through PPARα activation, we monitored stroke occurrence in SHRSP receiving JD plus fenofibrate versus vehicle, JD plus BO juice versus BO juice plus PPARα inhibitor. Brain UCP2 expression was markedly reduced by JD in SHRSP and in the (SHRsr.SHRsp-(D1Rat134-Mt1pa)) congenic line, whereas NF-κB expression and oxidative stress level increased. The opposite phenomenon was observed in the SHRSR and in the (SHRsp.SHRsr-(D1Rat134-Mt1pa)) reciprocal congenic line. Interestingly, the UCP2-targeted rno-microRNA-503 was significantly upregulated in SHRSP and decreased in SHRSR upon JD, with consistent changes in the two reciprocal congenic lines. Both fenofibrate and BO significantly decreased brain microRNA-503 level, upregulated UCP2 expression and protected SHRSP from stroke occurrence. In vitro overexpression of microRNA-503 in endothelial cells suppressed UCP2 expression and led to a significant increase of cell mortality with decreased cell viability. Brain UCP2 downregulation is a determinant of increased stroke predisposition in high-salt-fed SHRSP. In this context, UCP2 can be modulated by both pharmacological and nutraceutical agents. The microRNA-503 significantly contributes to mediate brain UCP2 downregulation in JD-fed SHRSP

Impact of Sex Differences and Diabetes on Coronary Atherosclerosis and Ischemic Heart Disease

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) including coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic heart disease (IHD) are the main cause of mortality in industrialized countries. Although it is well known that there is a difference in the risk of these diseases in women and men, current therapy does not consider the sexual dimorphism; i.e., differences in anatomical structures and metabolism of tissues. Here, we discuss how genetic, epigenetic, hormonal, cellular or molecular factors may explain the different CVD risk, especially in high-risk groups such as women with diabetes. We analyze whether sex may modify the effects of diabetes at risk of CAD. Finally, we discuss current diagnostic techniques in the evaluation of CAD and IHD in diabetic women

Stimulation of Sphingosine Kinase 1 (SPHK1) Is Beneficial in a Huntington’s Disease Pre-clinical Model

Although several agents have been identified to provide therapeutic benefits in Huntington disease (HD), the number of conventionally used treatments remains limited and only symptomatic. Thus, it is plausible that the need to identify new therapeutic targets for the development of alternative and more effective treatments is becoming increasingly urgent. Recently, the sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) axis has been reported to be a valid potential novel molecular target for therapy development in HD. Modulation of aberrant metabolism of S1P in HD has been proved to exert neuroprotective action in vitro settings including human HD iPSC-derived neurons. In this study, we investigated whether promoting S1P production by stimulating Sphingosine Kinase 1 (SPHK1) by the selective activator, K6PC-5, may have therapeutic benefit in vivo in R6/2 HD mouse model. Our findings indicate that chronic administration of 0.05 mg/kg K6PC-5 exerted an overall beneficial effect in R6/2 mice. It significantly slowed down the progressive motor deficit associated with disease progression, modulated S1P metabolism, evoked the activation of pro-survival pathways and markedly reduced the toxic mutant huntingtin (mHtt) aggregation. These results suggest that K6PC-5 may represent a future therapeutic option in HD and may potentially counteract the perturbed brain function induced by deregulated S1P pathways

A cohort study to evaluate persistence of hepatitis B immunogenicity after administration of hexavalent vaccines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2001, two hexavalent vaccines were licensed in Italy (Hexavac^®, Infanrix Hexa^®), and since 2002 were extensively used for primary immunization in the first year of life (at 3, 5, 11/12 months of age). In 2005, the market authorization of Hexavac^®was precautionary suspended by EMEA, because of doubts on long-term protection against hepatitis B virus. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the persistence of antibodies to anti-HBs, in children in the third year of life, and to investigate the response to a booster dose of hepatitis B vaccine.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participant children were enrolled concomitantly with the offering of anti-polio booster dose, in the third year of life. Anti-HBs titers were determined on capillary blood samples. A booster dose of hepatitis B vaccine was administered to children with anti-HBs titers < 10 mIU/ml, with the monovalent precursor product of the previously received hexavalent vaccine. HBsAb titers were tested again one month after the booster.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sera from 113 children previously vaccinated with Hexavac^®, and from 124 vaccinated with Infanrix Hexa^®were tested for anti-HBs. Titers were ≥ 10 mIU/ml in 69% and 96% (p < 0,0001) respectively. The proportion of children with titers ≥ 100 mIU/ml did also significantly differ among groups (27% and 78%; p < 0,0001).</p> <p>Post-booster, 93% of children achieved titers ≥ 10 mIU/ml, with no significant difference by vaccine group.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Fifteen months after third dose administration, a significant difference in anti-HBs titers was noted in the two vaccine groups considered. Monovalent hepatitis B vaccine administration in 3-year old children induced a proper booster response, confirming that immunologic memory persists in children with anti-HBs titers < 10 mIU/ml. However, long-term persistence of HBV protection after hexavalent vaccines administration should be further evaluated over time.</p

ESC Joint Working Groups on Cardiovascular Surgery and the Cellular Biology of the Heart Position Paper: Perioperative myocardial injury and infarction in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery

International audienc

Practical guidelines for rigor and reproducibility in preclinical and clinical studies on cardioprotection

The potential for ischemic preconditioning to reduce infarct size was first recognized more than 30 years ago. Despite extension of the concept to ischemic postconditioning and remote ischemic conditioning and literally thousands of experimental studies in various species and models which identified a multitude of signaling steps, so far there is only a single and very recent study, which has unequivocally translated cardioprotection to improved clinical outcome as the primary endpoint in patients. Many potential reasons for this disappointing lack of clinical translation of cardioprotection have been proposed, including lack of rigor and reproducibility in preclinical studies, and poor design and conduct of clinical trials. There is, however, universal agreement that robust preclinical data are a mandatory prerequisite to initiate a meaningful clinical trial. In this context, it is disconcerting that the CAESAR consortium (Consortium for preclinicAl assESsment of cARdioprotective therapies) in a highly standardized multi-center approach of preclinical studies identified only ischemic preconditioning, but not nitrite or sildenafil, when given as adjunct to reperfusion, to reduce infarct size. However, ischemic preconditioning—due to its very nature—can only be used in elective interventions, and not in acute myocardial infarction. Therefore, better strategies to identify robust and reproducible strategies of cardioprotection, which can subsequently be tested in clinical trials must be developed. We refer to the recent guidelines for experimental models of myocardial ischemia and infarction, and aim to provide now practical guidelines to ensure rigor and reproducibility in preclinical and clinical studies on cardioprotection. In line with the above guideline, we define rigor as standardized state-of-the-art design, conduct and reporting of a study, which is then a prerequisite for reproducibility, i.e. replication of results by another laboratory when performing exactly the same experiment